NHS & Private Pension Retirement Modeller
Projections based on the numbers and assumptions you enter. Not financial advice — speak to a regulated adviser before making retirement decisions.
🔒 Private by design — everything runs in your browser, and your figures never leave your device.
First, three quick figures
These are all it takes to see your projected retirement income. Most are on your NHS pension statement — log in to the My NHS Pension portal at mynhspension.nhsbsa.nhs.uk if you have it handy.
Where do I find this?
Your total pensionable pay this year, across all NHS posts. A recent payslip shows it, or your statement’s Pensionable Earnings Statement page lists last year’s figure per year — use your best current-year estimate.
Where do I find this?
Log in to the My NHS Pension portal at mynhspension.nhsbsa.nhs.uk (or use a posted NHSBSA estimate letter). On the 2015 Scheme statement, under “Accrued Retirement Benefits”, copy the yearly Pension figure. Use the full figure — not the “Pension (reduced)” line, which assumes you take the maximum lump sum. This figure should already include the McCloud remedy — the automatic fix that gives you the better of the old and new scheme rules for 2015–2022 service.
Where do I find this?
Near the top of the same 2015 Scheme statement, find “Last updated to” — enter the year from that date. Statements are often a year or more behind; the model automatically brings the figure up to date.
Assumptions used (6)
The assumptions currently shaping your figures.
- How much your NHS pay is assumed to grow above inflation1.0%
Nominal pay awards have varied 2-6%, but much of that just tracks inflation — this uses a conservative real-terms planning assumption, not a forecast.
- How fast your 2015 Scheme (CARE) pot grows above inflation1.5%
The scheme rule is CPI + 1.5% nominal — since everything here is shown in today’s money, only the +1.5% real element is applied.
- 2015 Scheme build-up rate1/54
Standard NHS 2015 Scheme accrual — you build up this fraction of that year’s pay as pension, each year.
- Reduction applied for claiming before your Normal Pension Age5.0%
Illustrative flat rate — NHSBSA’s real reduction factors are non-linear. Any ERRBO years you’ve bought out reduce this automatically.
- Standard Annual Allowance£60,000
The most you can pay into pensions each year, across all schemes, before a tax charge applies.
- Estimated State Pension£12,548
Defaulted to the full new State Pension rate — gaps in your National Insurance record would reduce your real figure, so check your gov.uk forecast.
Annual Allowance
All projected years stay within your Annual Allowance.
Retirement Living Standards
Independent annual benchmarks (Pensions UK, formerly PLSA, researched by Loughborough University) for what different retirement lifestyles cost. These are spending targets, not income recommendations. Source: retirementlivingstandards.org.uk
| Standard | One-person | Two-person | What it typically includes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum | £13,900 | £22,500 | Covers all basic needs with some left over for fun — a week’s UK holiday, no car, modest eating out |
| Moderate | £32,700 | £45,400 | More financial security and flexibility — an annual overseas holiday, a car, eating out a few times a month |
| Comfortable | £45,400 | £62,700 | More financial freedom — long-haul-style holidays, a newer car replaced regularly, regular treats and gifts |
Figures assume you own your home outright (no rent/mortgage) and exclude care costs.
Glossary (24 terms)
This gets complex fast — use this as a quick reference.
| Term | What it means |
|---|---|
| 1995 / 2008 Section | The two ‘legacy’ NHS pension schemes, closed to new members from 2015. Final-salary based — your pension depends on your pay near the end of membership, not your career average. |
| 2015 Scheme (CARE) | The current NHS pension scheme. ‘Career Average Revalued Earnings’ — you build up a slice of pension each year based on that year’s pay, which then grows with inflation until retirement. |
| McCloud Remedy | A legal fix for age discrimination when the 1995/2008 schemes were closed. For service between April 2015 and March 2022, NHS Pensions automatically compares legacy vs 2015 Scheme rules and gives you whichever is higher. |
| Normal Pension Age (NPA) | The age you can take your NHS pension in full, with no reduction. 60 (1995 Section), 65 (2008 Section), or your State Pension Age (2015 Scheme). |
| Normal Minimum Pension Age (NMPA) | The earliest age you can access a PRIVATE pension (SIPP etc) without penalty. Currently 55, rising to 57 from April 2028. |
| Additional Pension (AP) | A way to buy extra GUARANTEED, inflation-linked NHS pension on top of your normal 2015 Scheme benefits, up to a yearly limit (~£8,946 for 2026/27). |
| AVC (Additional Voluntary Contribution) | An in-house, INVESTED (not guaranteed) way to top up your NHS pension savings — more like a SIPP than a guaranteed pension. |
| ERRBO (Early Retirement Reduction Buy Out) | Lets 2015 Scheme members pay extra to reduce or remove the penalty for retiring before their Normal Pension Age. |
| Annual Allowance (AA) | The most you can pay into pensions each year (across all schemes combined) before facing a tax charge. £60,000 standard limit for 2026/27. |
| Tapered Annual Allowance | A reduced Annual Allowance for high earners — tapers down to a £10,000 floor if your ‘adjusted income’ exceeds £260,000. |
| Pension Input Amount (PIA) | The value HMRC assigns to your pension growth in a year, for Annual Allowance purposes. For DB schemes like the NHS pension, this isn’t just your contributions — it’s roughly 16x the increase in your annual pension. |
| SIPP (Self-Invested Personal Pension) | A private, invested pension you control directly, separate from your NHS pension. Same tax relief and access-age rules as other personal pensions. |
| LISA (Lifetime ISA) | A tax-free savings account with a 25% government bonus, usable for a first home or from age 60. Can only be opened age 18-39, and you can’t pay in from age 50. |
| S&S ISA (Stocks & Shares ISA) | A tax-free, flexible investment account with no access-age restriction — but no government bonus or pension-style tax relief either. |
| GIA (General Investment Account) | A taxable investment account, used once you’ve maxed your £20,000/year ISA allowance. Subject to Capital Gains Tax and dividend tax. |
| Old / frozen pension | A pension (DB or DC) from a previous employer that you’re no longer contributing to, but which still has value. |
| Drawdown | Taking a flexible income directly from an invested pension pot, leaving the rest invested — as opposed to buying a fixed annuity. |
| Annuity | A product you can buy with pension savings that pays a guaranteed income for life, in exchange for the pot itself. |
| Commutation | Giving up some annual pension in exchange for a bigger tax-free lump sum (usually at a fixed rate, e.g. £12 lump sum per £1 of pension given up). |
| Tax-free lump sum | The portion of your pension you can usually take tax-free at retirement — capped by the Lump Sum Allowance (£268,275 for 2026/27). |
| State Pension Age (SPA) | The earliest age you can claim the State Pension — currently 66-67 depending on date of birth, rising to 68 in future. |
| Retirement Living Standards | Independent benchmarks (Pensions UK / PLSA, researched by Loughborough University) for what different retirement lifestyles cost, from ‘Minimum’ to ‘Comfortable’. |
| Real terms / today’s money | Figures adjusted to strip out the effect of future inflation, so they’re comparable to what things cost today rather than being distorted by decades of compounding price rises. |
| Dynamised income / final salary link | For GPs, legacy 1995/2008 pension benefits keep growing in real terms (CPI + 1.5%, with a 1.5% floor) right up until you claim them, as long as you don’t have a 5+ year break in NHS pensionable service. Officers get a similar link, but to current pay scales instead. |
Assumptions & Sources (26 rows)
This model works entirely in TODAY’S MONEY (real terms). Every growth/revaluation rate is the rate ABOVE inflation, not the total nominal rate.
| Assumption | Default used | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 Scheme accrual rate | 1/54 | NHS Pension Scheme rules — standard for 2015 CARE scheme |
| 2015 Scheme CARE revaluation (REAL) | 1.5% real | Scheme rule is CPI + 1.5% nominal — since this model works in today’s money, we use only the +1.5% real element. Source: NHS Pension Scheme regulations |
| Pay growth assumption (REAL) | 1.0% real (illustrative) | This is growth ABOVE inflation. Nominal AfC pay awards have varied 2-6%, but much of that has just matched inflation — 0-1.5% real is a reasonable long-run planning range, not a forecast |
| Standard Annual Allowance | £60,000 | 2026/27 HMRC limit |
| Tapered Annual Allowance | Down to £10,000 min | Applies if ‘adjusted income’ > £260,000: AA reduces £1 for every £2 over the threshold. Toggle on Inputs tab. Source: HMRC pension tax rules — verify each tax year |
| Normal Minimum Pension Age (private pensions) | 57 | Rising from 55 to 57 from 6 April 2028 — confirm protection rules if relevant |
| LISA contribution cut-off | Last eligible year: age 49 | You cannot pay into a LISA (and get the government bonus) from age 50 onwards, and cannot open a new LISA after age 39. Existing balance keeps growing. Modelled automatically in the Private Pensions Projection tab |
| LISA — future of the product | Existing LISAs unaffected; NEW LISAs unavailable from ~April 2028 | Announced in the Autumn 2025 Budget: the government is replacing the Lifetime ISA with a new ‘First-Time Buyer ISA’ for house-purchase only (no retirement-savings option), expected around April 2028. If you already have a LISA open, none of this changes anything for you — you can keep contributing under the current rules indefinitely. Source: HM Treasury Autumn Budget 2025 / FTB ISA consultation, June 2026 |
| LISA access age (no penalty) | 60 | Withdrawals before 60 (other than first home purchase) incur a 25% government withdrawal charge |
| LISA government bonus | 25% | Added on contributions up to £4,000/year — confirm still in payment each year |
| Growth rates — SIPP/LISA/ISA (REAL) | 4.5% real (illustrative) | Based on the UBS/Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026: world equities have returned ~5.2% real annualised since 1900, though only ~3.5% since 2000. 4.5% is a middle-of-the-road illustrative assumption, not a promise |
| Drawdown assumption | 4% of pot p.a. | Common rule-of-thumb, not a recommendation — real plans should model sequencing/order of withdrawals |
| State Pension amount | £12,547.60 (2026/27 full rate, default) | Auto-suggested default — get YOUR real figure from your gov.uk State Pension forecast, as NI record gaps reduce this |
| State Pension Age | Calculated from date of birth | Applies the legislated bands (66 / 67 / 68) — the 66-to-67 transitional band is simplified to 67; verify your exact date at gov.uk/state-pension-age |
| McCloud remedy | Not separately modelled | TRS/ABS CARE balances should already reflect the automatic legacy-vs-2015 comparison for the remedy period |
| Drawdown strategy | 4% Safe Withdrawal (default) or Bridge-to-SPA | ‘4%’ assumes the private pot lasts indefinitely. ‘Bridge’ assumes you deliberately spend it down to zero by your State Pension Age. Bridge mode ignores further investment growth during the drawdown years, for simplicity |
| Legacy (1995/2008) Normal Pension Ages | 60 (1995 Section) / 65 (2008 Section) | Scenario Summary pays £0 for each legacy section until you reach ITS OWN Normal Pension Age. Taking legacy benefits EARLY (with an actuarial reduction) isn’t modelled |
| Legacy scheme figures | Entered directly from TRS/ABS | No years/final-pay calculation needed — just copy the ‘Pension’ and ‘Lump Sum’ figures straight from your Annual Benefit Statement’s Standard Benefits table |
| Legacy pension growth (dynamising/final salary link) | 1.5% real p.a. (GP dynamised income) | For GPs, legacy 1995/2008 benefits stay ‘final salary linked’ as long as there’s no 5+ year break in NHS pensionable service. Officers are linked to current pay scales instead, which can occasionally undershoot inflation |
| 2015 CARE — out-of-date TRS catch-up | Assumes ~1 year old by default; extra years auto-corrected | The model assumes a TRS/ABS is about a year old. If yours is older, it runs extra catch-up years using your CURRENT pay as a stand-in for the missing years’ pay/accrual |
| Pension Input Amount (Annual Allowance) | 16x accrual (approx) | Simplified illustration only — HMRC’s exact DB valuation method also factors in opening-value revaluation |
| NHS Additional Pension (AP) | User-entered guaranteed amount | Lets 2015 Scheme members buy extra guaranteed, inflation-linked annual pension (up to ~£8,946/yr for 2026/27) |
| NHS AVCs | Modelled like SIPP/ISA | In-house Additional Voluntary Contributions — invested, not guaranteed. Grows using the same mechanics as SIPP/ISA |
| ERRBO / early retirement reduction | 5% p.a. (illustrative, flat) | Early Retirement Reduction Buy Out lets you buy out some/all of the reduction for claiming before Normal Pension Age. NHSBSA’s real reduction factors are non-linear — this model uses a flat illustrative rate |
| Retirement age vs NHS claim age | Separate inputs per Scenario | ‘Retirement age’ is when you stop working. ‘NHS pension claim age’ is when you actually start drawing your NHS pension — a separate choice. They default to the same age. Set the claim age later to model deferring your NHS pension claim, with your private pots bridging the gap |
| GIA tax drag | 0.5% (Basic) / 1.0% (Higher) / 1.1% (Additional) real p.a. | Illustrative estimate of the annual tax cost of holding investments outside a pension/ISA. Actual drag depends heavily on your asset mix and use of tax-efficient strategies |
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